Archive for November, 2008

The Times Gets Pwnd

We were doubtful last night when the story first broke. There were just too many oddities to The Times’ tale about a complicated Yahoo/Microsoft search arrangement that would guarantee billions to Yahoo in exchange for a ten year search deal. We’ve checked with our sources - all of them - and we can’t verify a single fact in the story.

The first part of the story: “Microsoft is in talks to acquire Yahoo’s online search business for $20 billion.”

Wrong. Our sources at Microsoft say they are not in current negotiations with Yahoo, over anything. Our sources at Yahoo agree, also saying they are not in negotiations with Microsoft over anything. Yahoo sources add that the company is fully engaged in finding a new CEO right now, and nothing else.

The second part of the story: “The proposal forms the centrepiece of a complex transaction that would see Microsoft support a new management team to take control of Yahoo…Jonathan Miller, ex-chairman and chief executive of AOL, and Ross Levinsohn, a former president of Fox Interactive Media, have been lined up to lead the new management team.”

Wrong. I spoke with Ross Levinsohn this afternoon. He says that there is absolutely no truth to the story. He also says that neither he or Jonathan Miller, his partner at Velocity Interactive Group, were contacted by the Times.

The third part of the story: “Under the terms of the proposed transaction, Microsoft would provide a $5 billion facility to the Miller and Levinsohn management team. The duo would raise an additional $5 billion from external investors. This cash would be used to buy convertible preference shares and warrants which would give it a holding in excess of 30% of Yahoo. The external investors would also have the right to appoint three of Yahoo’s 11 board directors. The talks with Yahoo involve Microsoft obtaining a 10-year operating agreement to manage the search business. It would also receive a two-year call option to buy the search business for $20 billion. That would leave Yahoo to run its own e-mail, messaging, and content services. It is expected that the operating agreement would boost Yahoo’s income by as much as $2 billion per annum.”

Wrong. See above. Also, the deal terms make no sense compared to Microsoft’s actual search offer from earlier this year. It values Yahoo way above market value, even taking deal premiums into account, and the incremental cash flow from the deal doesn’t match up to previous estimates published by Yahoo.

The Times, first published in 1785, has long been considered the newspaper of record in the UK, but yesterday they really stepped in it, and someone has manipulated them badly. Thankfully the markets weren’t open, because the article would have definitely resulted in a short term spike in Yahoo stock.

Thanks to FailBlog for the image, and just in general for existing.

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Biggest Battle Yet For Social Networks: You, Your Identity And Your Data On The Open Web

Today’s the day that Facebook makes their big press push for their Facebook Connect service, which was first announced last May. The NY Times has a story giving a broad overview of Connect as well as competing services from MySpace (Data Availability) and Google (Friend Connect).

All three services are platforms for third party sites (Digg, Twitter, Citisearch, CBS, whatever) to let users sign in via their favorite social network instead of the normal approach. Some profile information flows with the sign in, which the sites can keep for a period of time. And activity that occurs on the site - Twitters written, Digg stories voted on, restaurant reviews on Citysearch, etc.) can optionally flow back to the user’s activity stream.

What the third party sites get out of these services: easy sign in for users, particularly new users. They can also use the profile data to help users create accounts at their site with little data input. The activity stream information published on the social networks includes links back to their sites. And one of the most interesting features, for Facebook Connect partners: sites can request friend lists from Facebook to help them make more connections on their own services. Digg CEO Jay Adelson recently gushed over the potential of Facebook Connect for his service.

Facebook also gives Connect partners most of the same tools as their application developers to promote their services via the news feed, invites, etc.

But the real value goes to the social networks. These services make users begin to think about their identity in terms of their MySpace profile, or Facebook login as they use it to sign into their favorite services. That makes it even more likely the users will maintain their profiles on those services, add friends, etc.

MySpace in particular wants to own user identities. Their MySpace profile is their name online, which is why they’ve embraced OpenID so completely in recent months. Data Availability and OpenID are two parts to a single strategy.

Facebook is probably less concerned with identity - there is no branded URL for users, for example. But they do want to own the definitive profile for an individual and, more importantly, their social graph. Knowing who you are and who your friends are is the key to their yet-unrealized business model.

And the biggest win of all is this free flow of data back to the social networks, which quite nicely fills out a user’s profile for advertising purposes.

Facebook is moving ahead alone with Connect, using proprietary standards for login and data sharing. They’ve also prohibited Google from trying to get in the middle of things with their Friend Connect service. MySpace, by contrast, is using mostly open standards in their approach, and is working closely with Google to make sure the services work properly together.

The battle for partners is intense. MySpace announced Twitter as a launch partner, but rumor is that Twitter is actually integrating with Facebook first (there’s no reason they can’t offer both, and they probably will). MySpace also announced Yahoo and eBay as launch partners. To date, though, they’ve only launched with Flixster and Eventful.

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Calacanis Rips NY Times’ Stross Over Tesla Editorial

I’m with you on this one Jason. Randall Stross’ article (it’s really an editorial, but not marked as such) rips into Tesla as “not much more than a functioning concept car” and suggests it would be foolish of the government to grant it a loan under a 2007 Federal loan program designed specifically to encourage development of vehicles that conserve fuel.

Stross’ argument is that Tesla only makes cars for the rich (their first model is $109,000), and the technology is unproven. But Tesla has announced two new vehicles, both at much lower prices (and one targeted at $30,000). Stross’ facts are wrong, and his opinions are misguided. If Tesla succeeds, it will be because it was able to sell cars to the mass market.

I’m against government meddling in the markets. But I would far prefer to see Tesla get any part of that money, if it must be distributed, than any of the big three automakers. As I wrote this weekend, the best thing for them, and for our country, is to just let them die. They are incapable of innovating given their current financial and logistical structure. Tesla, on the other hand, is actually doing something interesting.

Dear Amazon: Here’s How to Sell Even More Kindles

Love it or hate it, Amazon.com’s Kindle e-book reader is selling well -- in fact, even at $359 there currently aren’t any in stock. So Amazon certainly doesn’t need any advice from me about how to sell more Kindles, but I have some ideas about how the company could make the device more attractive to casual readers like me.

The basic idea would be to make the Kindle reach critical mass as a consumer product, similar to how many “average” people own an iPod. Whether iPod owners use it or appreciate it isn’t as important as the fact that they bought an iPod because it’s become the de facto standard for portable music playback.

Granted, e-book readers are a harder sell than portable music players as almost everyone consumes music in someway or another but not everyone regularly reads books for pleasure. Still, the idea isn’t to make the Kindle as popular as the iPod, it’s to make the Kindle the iPod of e-book readers.

MyQuire Gets Acquired, Won’t Tell Us By Whom

The company behind MyQuire, a simple but pretty powerful online application that lets individuals and team members work on projects in a social network-like environment, has been recently acquired.

That’s about all we know. We got in touch with CEO Michael Dawson but he declined to comment or share any details because the buyer apparently requested full confidentiality on the deal.

A tipster shared the following e-mail he received:

We have some big news! After nearly two years of building MyQuire, we have been acquired. We have had a great time working with you, and couldn’t have gotten here without your help.

As part of this deal, we will no longer be able to operate MyQuire.com. Services on the platform will end January 1, 2009. We apologize for any disruption to your work.

The collaboration tool was first launched about 14 months ago at the DEMOFall conference but we hadn’t really heard anything from or about the company since. Even their own ‘press coverage’ and ‘press releases’ pages haven’t been updated since December 2007.

Anyone out there who knows a bit more about the acquisition?

Here’s a video of Founder and former CEO David Steinberg presenting MyQuire at DEMOFall 07:

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The First-Time CEO’s Recession Survival Guide

Editor’s note: The following guest post is written by Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin, an online real estate broker.  His industry went into recession a year ago, so he’s had a little more time than most startup CEOs to think about how to deal with the current downturn. Below is his advice to his fellow entrepreneurs.

Startups can be the most conservative organizations in the world. We spend so much energy nurturing our delicate egos against naysayers and self-doubt that we can hardly admit mistakes. This is especially true of first-time CEOs. Thousands of new web companies were born in the last few years, and many of us just got the job.

We set off with the same directions: tackle a big problem, listen to customers, work hard, pinch pennies, hire slow, fire fast. Still good advice. But I think we’ll have different advice for one another once we’ve come through this downturn, about how we had to change to survive. Since real estate crashed before the overall market, Redfin (my online real estate company) has had a year’s head-start sorting out which changes seem to be working for us.

Not that we don’t still have a long ways to go.  We’re still on track for our first profits in 2009, but we’re going to have to fight to make it.

The time we have left to succeed or fail is really just the measure of how long it took to adapt to our downturn. If I had been more experienced, we’d have adapted faster. Here’s the survival guide I’d give my former self, the one just starting to face the storm:

1. Compete With Your Successor

I often think about what my replacement will do after I’m fired. She won’t have emotional commitments to decisions that I already regret. She’ll look at everything as an outsider—as a customer—refusing to tolerate problems that have lasted so long I’ve forgotten they’re there, re-considering initiatives we already passed over for want of imagination or energy. And she’ll have nine or even twelve months of leeway to build the business, so she can think long-term. Worst of all, she’ll get credit for turning Redfin into a successful, thriving business. I think, “I hate her! I hate her!” And then I try to be her.

2. Act Like an Owner

You’ve probably spent most of your life hating your boss, pleasing others (so you can blame them later) and spending other people’s money. These are hard habits to break. When I was still settling into being a CEO, I wasted a lot of time driving initiatives designed to please others, acting as if someone wouldn’t let me do what I wanted to do with Redfin. My moment of clarity came when a board member said, “as far as I’m concerned, you’re the owner of this business.” And he was right: you won’t own all the proceeds if the company succeeds, but you’ll certainly own a failure in its entirety. This sparked several reptilian impulses:

• “I can’t blame anyone else if this sucker goes down.” This made me feel powerful and savage, like Arnold at the end of “Predator.”
• “If it were all my money, I’d invest it in Redfin today — but there’d be some big changes around here.” We’re making those changes now. (This is about focusing on the part of the business that you really believe in.)
• “If we had to get our wallet out every week for that expense, would we?” (This is about focusing on the part of the business you don’t believe in.)

3. Get a Board You Connect With (Not Just One With Connections)

Startups have so much size anxiety that nothing can stop us from recruiting big shots onto our boards. But first-time CEOs need someone we can talk to about practical details, too. So in our case, Redfin chairman Paul Goodrich recruited Marc Singer for his experience with businesses run out of the cash register: restaurant chains, bean-bag manufacturers, installers of electronic animal fences. I used to be dubious that we had anything to learn from these companies. Not anymore.

Now I catch myself gazing at a parking-lot coffee cart and thinking, “what a great business” (it’s more profitable than most venture-funded startups). Marc has cultivated a nuts-and-bolts, make-money-now execution focus at our company. But there’s another benefit to working with him: it was easier from day one to think out loud with someone I wasn’t so anxious to impress.

Where I’d always imagined my board conversations would be like Richard Gere’s in “Pretty Woman” or even Willem Dafoe’s in “Spiderman” — conversations with Marc were more like telling a guy on a Greyhound bus about a bad breakup, where it all just came pouring out. In tough times, you need a board you connect with more than a board with connections.

4. Run Weekly Revenue Meetings

A job applicant from Amazon suggested holding a weekly revenue meeting, which has been an immediate hit. We focus on what we can do to drive revenue from week to week—tactical stuff, like hiring another field agent or changing a call to action on our site. We catch glitches that could otherwise last all month.

5. Automate Bad News

Bad news travels slowly—or sometimes just sits in your stomach—unless you pump reports straight out to the board, on revenues, traffic, customer service. Add spin if you like, but in a separate note so you don’t hold things up. This helps you avoid the-dog-ate-it board meetings.

6. (Just Ask to) Meet Your Peers

My natural tendency is to avoid meeting people outside of Redfin. I tend to measure my own work in keystrokes, and I begin to miss my computer after I’m away for 30 minutes. In hard times especially, it’s easy for a startup to become like a teenager’s basement bedroom: insular, stale, reeking of dude. Yet there are very few hours that have raised Redfin’s value as much as meetings with other entrepreneurs. A year before our cash-evaporation date, one CEO told me to start raising money. Another told us to get on the stick about our Google search rank. For someone wary of most consultants and experts, these meetings are one of my only sources of new information. And it’s important to gather new information: line managers have to focus on the jobs in front of them, but executives should be awake to what’s happening in the larger world. Anyone will meet you if you just ask for her help.

7. Create Simplicity

When Obama first heard the proposed slogan “yes we can,” his reaction was: “too simple.” But a leader’s job is to create simplicity. Over the past year, our real-estate executives slogged through ambiguous data on conversion rates, close rates, tour fulfillment. Decisive meetings felt like a math test where we ran out of time. Yet it never occurred to me to stop, step back and be precise and insistent about what we needed to know to make a decision. When something is hard to explain, you don’t understand it and you make mistakes. It’s a cliché to “keep it simple, stupid,” but the real challenge is to make it simple, mastering complexity instead of ignoring it. Entrepreneurs instinctively want to speed things up. What’s really hard is knowing when you have to slow them down.

8. Go on the Attack

Your competitors are hurting too. Be the aggressor, not the victim.

9. Be a Roman

What disgusted the ancient Romans about barbarians was their lack of discipline. Oxford Professor Peter Heather writes, “As far as a Roman was concerned, you could easily tell a barbarian by how he reacted to fortune. Give him one little stroke of luck, and he would think he had conquered the world. But, equally, the slightest setback would find him in deepest despair…” This is why, 2,000 miles from home, several hundred Romans could slaughter several thousand barbarians.

Startups are founded by barbarians. But to survive the ups and downs, you have to make yourself into a Roman. The most talented entrepreneur I know nearly self-destructs on the 18-month birthday of each of his ventures. By that point a startup isn’t brand-new anymore, and it isn’t Google either. The closer you get to becoming a real company, the less glamorous reality seems: you’re grimy from clawing for money and breathing hard now from exertion, which would be fine if you could convince yourself you’re not the only one struggling. Everyone struggles. Keep fighting.

10. The Journey is the Destination

Startups alternate between nostalgia for the garage and millennial longing for a lucrative exit. But what I always keep in mind is how disconnected and purposeless I felt before Redfin or my earlier startup, Plumtree. All I ever wanted was to get into a situation where I could win. Everybody has that dream. Even though you’re a second-string Little Leaguer, you dream that you’ll find a way into the World Series, that, with the game on the line, you’ll manage to hit just one major-league pitch. And if you do hit it, I promise you won’t be as happy as you were the moment before you swung. If you’re still playing, you can still win. And playing’s the thing. Enjoy it.

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Non-threatening CCTV Cameras Shaped Like Dolls Help Japanese Feel Safer

Surveillance cameras can sometimes give you a creepy feeling (especially the ones you can't directly see) but the nation of cute- and friendliness, Japan, now offers two solutions for that problem. One example of a "friendly" CCTV camera is the Daruma surveillance doll. Daruma is a wish doll in Nippon so that many Japanese people see the little guy in a positive light by nature (even though it says "security camera" on the doll in the video after the jump).

Want A Kindle Before Christmas? Get Ready To Pay

Last year Amazon had trouble filling orders of the then-new Kindle, so eBay took over and prices rocketed to $1,500. This year, same problem. Amazon says orders for Kindles will take 11-13 weeks to fulfill (which is, we believe, when they will launch the Kindle 2). So you aren’t getting one by Christmas directly from Amazon.

But eBay and Amazon stores have them for sale. New ones are going for as much as $975 (some are less) for buy it now. The market price for used ones seems to be in the $700 range, but some one is just $429.

I saw save a few dollars and wait for the new one to come out. You don’t want to be the guy who’s reading the old model on the plane.

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Reports Of New Microsoft-Yahoo Search Deal Hard To Believe

The UK’s Times Online is reporting that “Microsoft is in talks to acquire Yahoo’s online search business for $20 billion.” The report is filled with lots of juicy, specific details that lend it credence, but don’t make a lot of sense when you drill down into them.

The new deal, according to the Times Online, is a complex transaction that involves Microsoft supporting a new management team made up of former AOL CEO Jonathan Miller and former Fox Interactive Media president Ross Levinsohn, who are investing partners at Velocity Interactive Group. Levinsohn, however, tells VentureBeat there is “no truth” to the story. (Although there were rumors a while back that Microsoft wanted Levinsohn and Miller to run Yahoo, which is where this might be coming from).

And unlike Microsoft’s earlier offer to buy Yahoo’s search business outright, this one is for a long-term operating agreement. In fact, the $20 billion deal that sells the story in the headline is a red herring that refers to a call option that is part of the supposed deal. Here is how the story actually describes the supposed terms of the deal:

Under the terms of the proposed transaction, Microsoft would provide a $5 billion facility to the Miller and Levinsohn management team. The duo would raise an additional $5 billion from external investors.

This cash would be used to buy convertible preference shares and warrants which would give it a holding in excess of 30% of Yahoo.

The external investors would also have the right to appoint three of Yahoo’s 11 board directors. The talks with Yahoo involve Microsoft obtaining a 10-year operating agreement to manage the search business. It would also receive a two-year call option to buy the search business for $20 billion. That would leave Yahoo to run its own e-mail, messaging, and content services.

It is expected that the operating agreement would boost Yahoo’s income by as much as $2 billion per annum.

So the deal is really that Microsoft would put up $5 billion to help a new management team buy preferred shares and warrants that would give it a 30% stake in Yahoo. In return, Microsoft would get a 10-year operating agreement to run Yahoo’s search business.

Let’s just compare this to the deal Microsoft previously offered to buy Yahoo’s search business outright.

That involved an $8 billion direct investment in Yahoo in exchange for 16% of the company, plus $1 billion in cash for the search business. And that was expected to generate an extra $1 billion in operating income.

So how does the new deal generate twice as much income going into an economic downturn? And why would Microsoft agree to anything other than complete ownership of Yahoo’s search business? And how does the search business go from being worth $1 billion earlier this year to $20 billion in two years?

Like I said, it doesn’t make much sense.

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A Modest Proposal For The Auto Industry: Stop Building Cars

Everybody these days has some advice for the beleaguered U.S. auto industry. Bail them out. Break up the unions. Do something about the dealerships. Do something about spiraling health care and pension costs. Design cars people will love. Etc.

There’s always the “be more like Apple” advice that’s been going around for a couple of years. Make the iPod of cars. One that people love so much that they’ll pay a premium for it. Robert Scoble handed out pounds of this kind of advice a couple of weeks ago.

But there’s a reason why the car companies can’t build the iPod of cars. It’s because they’re so weighed down with all the logistical nightmares of actually building the stuff that goes into those cars.

Apple doesn’t actually make any of the parts that go in the iPod or iPhone. Factories, mostly in Shenzhen, China, do that. Most of the big PC manufacturers don’t actually build computers or any of the parts that are in them. Every part is made by different companies that specialize in building that particular thing. Even final hardware assembly is outsourced. Dell and some others do some final assembly themselves to allow for easy customization, but they are quickly getting out of that business, too.

If the car companies want to be more like Apple, they need to stop building any actual cars.

Vertical integration kills real research, because every company is doing their own work. With personal computers, every component has a vibrant and competitive market that drives innovation, quality and cost control. The big PC brands just design the final product and outsource the actual building of it.

Every major car manufacturer designs their own engines and drivetrains, manufacturers many of the important parts of the car, assembles it, manages a network of dealers and own their own finance companies to help people pay for those cars. Over the years they’ve dabbled in outsourcing, but the current trend is actually more vertical integration, not less.

Who’s the Intel of engine manufacturers? Why isn’t there one?

The best way forward for the automotive industry is to rip itself apart and start doing things sensibly, like the PC industry does. It won’t make any one company more stable, of course. In fact, it means competition will regularly drive companies at every point in the process out of business. But none of those companies will be in a position to drive our economy south if they do go out of business. Someone better will just take their place.

Does this mean our cars will be built in China? Yeah, it does. There’s no avoiding that. U.S. workers are just paid too much to build cars any more. Detroit may become the center of the car design world, with highly skilled and highly paid workers designing the iPod of cars, but the parts will be built elsewhere, and assembled elsewhere.

There’s a counter argument, that Toyota is the most vertically integrated car company in the world, and also the largest and healthiest. I argue that they’re the only ones that can do it profitably over the medium run in such an inefficient market because they have scale. If the market changes, which it is, that vertical integration model will fail.

And here’s the thing - this kind of change could never happen quickly in a normal market. There are just too many people negatively affected to make it work. But right now, with the auto-makers on the edge of collapse anyway, all we have to do is nothing to make this happen. Let the big car companies fail. Don’t bail them out. Their assets will efficiently move to the highest value use. There’s a good chance that ten years from now we’ll have a whole new crop of U.S. auto companies designing (and overseeing the assembly of) some really awesome cars.

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